Risk is what you can't see

The failure that hurts is rarely the one on your dashboard.

The honest version of this topic is dull, and that is the point. Dull compounds.

I write the rules down when I am calm, so that I have something to obey when I am not.

Pay attention, then count.

What I would tell my past self

Most of the risk lives where the dashboard does not look. I try to list the failures I cannot see before I list the returns I want.

None of this is advice. It is a record of what I do and why, so I can argue with it later.

Related notes: Reading a market, slowly.